Four years and hundreds of billions of dollars later, China’s ambitious global trading strategy known as the “New Maritime Silk Road” or “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) is now coming to life, particularly in parts of East Africa where major infrastructure and defense projects are being built. New ports in Tanzania, rail lines in Kenya, naval facilities in Djibouti and industrial zones along the Suez canal in Egypt are all intended to support this massive new trade network that president Xi Jinping hopes will become a key pillar of his foreign policy agenda.

With the first phase of construction nearing completion in East Africa, focus is now shifting to the next stage where Chinese planners are reportedly considering expanding the trading route inland into Central Africa. This is prompting intense new lobbying battles among African countries to win Beijing’s favor and the billions of dollars of badly-needed infrastructure investment that come with being a node on the “One Belt, One Road” network.

Many outsiders know very little about “One Belt, One Road” and its history. The incorrect assumption is that this is a new phase of Xi’s more assertive global foreign policy designed to challenge the US-led international economic order. In contrast, OBOR is rooted in a decade-old policy that was actually designed to counter fears of a hegemonic China. The so-called “Peaceful Rise” or “Peaceful Development” was first introduced by former Chinese president Hu Jintao when he promoted the concept of fusing China’s expanding foreign policy objectives with a development agenda and a global trading strategy.

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In the last few weeks there have been riots in Zimbabwe. In Beitbridge, on the border with South Africa, furious cross-border traders set fire to a warehouse in protest at import bans recently imposed, while in Harare taxi operators protested against the cost of continuous police road blocks, where spot fines are extracted.

Both these incidents highlight how Zimbabwe’s economy has changed dramatically, and why the state has to accommodate, encourage and support the informal sector, not control, suppress and ignore it.

Formal unemployment runs at 90 percent or more, but this doesn’t mean that all these people are not doing things. They are, but not in the jobs of the past. Livelihoods are improvised and flexible, combining ways of earning income – farming, trading, dealing, manufacturing, mining, selling services and a host of other distributive activities, reliant on deeply embedded social relationships.

New networks of economic activity have emerged, as has a vibrant spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship. This is in the context of extreme hardship for sure, as the economy continues to plummet due to lack of investment.

Informal economies are built on relations. Many operating in the informal sector are reliant on patrons and support from others; sometimes this is through relations of kinship, or through the church, and very often political patronage plays a part. If you want to secure a spot to trade in town, someone inevitably has to be paid off. Informal activity is tough, precarious fragile, sometimes illegal, and often is subject to arbitrary taxation from those in authority – as in the case of the road blocks affecting informal transport operators across the country.

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Foreign companies opening offices in Kenya will be required to cede at least a third of their shareholding to locals after Attorney-General Githu Muigai fully operationalised the newly enacted Companies Act 2015.

The new law requires that foreign companies registering in Kenya cede at least 30 per cent of their shareholding to persons who are Kenyan citizens by birth.

Prof Muigai, via a gazette notice issued a fortnight ago appointed June 15, 2016 as the date to enforce in full the Companies Act. The new law was being implemented in phases previously.

Investors who fail to comply with the fresh ownership rules will be slapped with a fine of Sh5 million.

The law comes into force despite Industrialisation Secretary Adan Mohamed’s admission in November last year that the ownership rule was an “error” that would be corrected.

The statute also provides that there shall be a foreign company register and empowers the Treasury Cabinet Secretary to issue regulations on how foreign companies will operate in Kenya.

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On Thursday 23 June, the UK’s voting-age citizens took to the polls to decide whether UK should leave the European Union (EU). And by the following morning there was pandemonium as the world’s markets tried to adjust to the new reality of the UK’s 52%-winning vote to exit.

It will actually take at least two years for the UK to officially leave the EU after Article 50 has been triggered – the formal legal process for countries wishing to leave the EU. But the uncertainty around what the future holds has caused market turbulence. Agreements concerning trade and freedom of movement will have to be re-negotiated, leaving businesses unable to make informed calls on investment. After the results of the vote, the pound took a huge knock and rating agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) slashed their credit ratings for the country.

Africa will not be immune to the effects as its countries face uncertainty around exporting to UK. For example, over a third of flowers sold in the EU come from Kenya – with the UK being the second-largest buyer. Kenya, as well as all other African markets, will now have to renegotiate new deals with the UK.

The continent’s markets are also likely to feel the pinch of a weaker pound in the long term.

“The UK is the fourth biggest investor in Africa so there will be less investment coming into the continent because there will be less growth and less money to spend,” says Leon Ayo, CEO for sub-Saharan Africa at international executive recruitment agency Odgers Berndtson.

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