Donald Trump’s election as US President is likely to make the world’s biggest economy more inward-looking, more protectionist and acting more unilaterally in global affairs.
The world may potentially become more dangerous if Trump implements some of his policy statements issued during his presidential election campaign.
Early in 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) rated a forthcoming Trump presidency as one of the top 10 highest global risks, warning he could disrupt the global economy, and increase political and security tensions.
The EIU rated a Trump presidency at the same level of a risk as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy”.
Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama has pursued a global strategy of positioning the US at the head of a rule-based world order, pushing US-style liberal democracy, globalised free trade and a United Nations-based multilateralism, which developing countries have criticised for favouring the US and industrial countries to the disadvantage of developing countries.
It is very likely that Trump may disrupt the Obama legacy.
Trump has threatened to curtail trade, with especially, China, with which the US runs a trade deficit. If the Trump-led US does indeed restrict trade, it will undermine the global economy, slowing growth.
US economist Paul Krugman has already warned that the Trump presidency may trigger a global recession.
A slowing global economy will undermine growth in African economies. African economies are heavily dependent on a growing global economy, which in turns increase the chances of industrial and developing countries buying African resources.
Trump could trigger a trade and currency war between the US and other countries…
Trump has vowed to introduce a “defensive” 45% tariff on Chinese imports, lodge trade complaints against the Chinese dragon at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and declare China a currency manipulator.
If Trump retaliates against China, it will not only undermine growth in the Chinese economy, but growth in other countries too, especially Africa and emerging markets.
The past year have already seen African economies, especially those that are commodity exporters, slowing down because of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has been the largest buyer of African commodities.
A further slowdown in the Chinese economy, this time triggered by Trump policies will depress China’s buying of commodities – which may in turn cause further shocks to African economies.
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Gigaba to announce ORTIA relief measures
Minister of Home Affairs, Malusi Gigaba, is expected to make an announcement tomorrow (Thursday, December 8) regarding measures to ensure operational efficiency at immigration counters at OR Tambo International Airport.
The Minister’s intention was advised at a Department of Home Affairs stakeholder meeting today (Wednesday, December 7), called to discuss changes to Immigration Regulations to be implemented next year.
While not revealing the details of the Minister’s announcement, Mkuseli Apleni, Director General of the Department of Home Affairs, suggested that the changes would allow immigration at the airport to operate at full capacity for a limited period of time. Apleni confirmed that the department had written to Treasury and Acsa highlighting the shortage of resources experienced by DHA.
The biometric capturing system will also be rolled out at six of South Africa’s busiest land ports of entry in future.
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Trump: What are consequences for African economies?
Donald Trump’s election as US President is likely to make the world’s biggest economy more inward-looking, more protectionist and acting more unilaterally in global affairs.
The world may potentially become more dangerous if Trump implements some of his policy statements issued during his presidential election campaign.
Early in 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) rated a forthcoming Trump presidency as one of the top 10 highest global risks, warning he could disrupt the global economy, and increase political and security tensions.
The EIU rated a Trump presidency at the same level of a risk as “the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy”.
Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama has pursued a global strategy of positioning the US at the head of a rule-based world order, pushing US-style liberal democracy, globalised free trade and a United Nations-based multilateralism, which developing countries have criticised for favouring the US and industrial countries to the disadvantage of developing countries.
It is very likely that Trump may disrupt the Obama legacy.
Trump has threatened to curtail trade, with especially, China, with which the US runs a trade deficit. If the Trump-led US does indeed restrict trade, it will undermine the global economy, slowing growth.
US economist Paul Krugman has already warned that the Trump presidency may trigger a global recession.
A slowing global economy will undermine growth in African economies. African economies are heavily dependent on a growing global economy, which in turns increase the chances of industrial and developing countries buying African resources.
Trump has vowed to introduce a “defensive” 45% tariff on Chinese imports, lodge trade complaints against the Chinese dragon at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and declare China a currency manipulator.
If Trump retaliates against China, it will not only undermine growth in the Chinese economy, but growth in other countries too, especially Africa and emerging markets.
The past year have already seen African economies, especially those that are commodity exporters, slowing down because of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has been the largest buyer of African commodities.
A further slowdown in the Chinese economy, this time triggered by Trump policies will depress China’s buying of commodities – which may in turn cause further shocks to African economies.
Source
We need to look at tourism as a saviour
South Africa has staved off a global credit ratings agency downgrade for more than a year now, holding on – just – to the rating one small step above “junk” as defined by the three largest global credit ratings agencies: S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody’s.
A downgrade to “junk” would effectively put a stop to all new foreign investment in South Africa, as the ratings agencies send a message to the world that South Africa is unable to service its foreign debt. A downgrade would also precipitate significant job losses across the economy and an almost instant currency devaluation.
The travel and tourism sector would, along with the rest of the economy, suffer these downgrade repercussions. However, for the tourism industry there will be additional implications.
The nation has freshly emerged from the 2012/15 power and energy crisis that saw economic growth stumble, then stall. This, along with the drought (that tightens its stranglehold on the agriculture sector and continues to set the price of food soaring); labour issues (and violence) in mining; stubbornly high unemployment rates (presently at more than 27 percent of the adult population), and inflation puts immense pressure on local consumers.
A downgrade to “junk” would increase the pressure manifold. Many more jobs would be lost; the rand would decline further; prices would increase; and people would hunker down for survival. There would be scant disposable income to spend on non-necessities such as leisure trips.
For an industry whose lifeblood is the domestic market (at any one time, almost 75 percent of tourists in South Africa are locals), the implications are obvious.
Attractiveness questioned
While it is true that a devalued rand could well be leveraged to boost our destination’s attractiveness to foreign tourists; it’s perilous to imagine that a downgrade would be good for the travel and tourism industry.
A downgrade to “junk” could effectively stop foreign investment in South Africa, including investment in projects to develop tourism infrastructure.
It is no exaggeration to say that tourism is one of the very few sectors of the economy that is growing. With threats of a downgrade, it makes good sense to give tourism every means it needs to continue on its robust growth path.
Revised immigration requirements (that made their entrée in 2014) continue to bedevil tourism.
Source
HOME AFFAIRS SLAMS MASHABA’S COMMENTS ON ILLEGAL FOREIGNERS IN SA
JOHANNESBURG – The Home Affairs Department says there can be no justification for statements made by Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba on illegal foreign nationals living in the city.
While the department has noted challenges facing the city, it says this cannot be a reason for the generalisations made by Mashaba.
Delivering his 100 days in office progress report last week Mashaba said illegal foreign nationals living in Johannesburg must be treated as criminals since they came to South Africa illegally.
He ordered them to vacate the city.
The department’s Mayihlome Tshwete says there shouldn’t be blanket generalisation simply based on the means people used to arrive in South Africa.
“While we note those challenges, we can never say it’s justified for a person to make sweeping generalisations about criminality or even about the integrity of a certain people based on how or the type of movement they used coming into the country.”
Mashaba said illegal activity, particularly in the inner city, is hindering the area’s development.
“They’re holding our country to ransom and I’m going to be the last South African to allow it. I’ve got constrains as local government, because the national government has opened our borders to criminality.”
He said the inner city has been taken over by criminals.
“Every embassy that I’ve engaged with and shared with my plans, everybody agrees.”
Mashaba said those living in the city illegally and involved in criminal activity will be targeted.
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